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The formation of preference in risky choice

机译:风险选择中偏好的形成

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摘要

A key question in decision-making is how people integrate amounts and probabilities to form preferences between risky alternatives. Here we rely on the general principle of integration-to-boundary to develop several biologically plausible process models of risky-choice, which account for both choices and response-times. These models allowed us to contrast two influential competing theories: i) within-alternative evaluations, based on multiplicative interaction between amounts and probabilities, ii) within-attribute comparisons across alternatives. To constrain the preference formation process, we monitored eye-fixations during decisions between pairs of simple lotteries, designed to systematically span the decision-space. The behavioral results indicate that the participants' eye-scanning patterns were associated with risk-preferences and expected-value maximization. Crucially, model comparisons showed that within-alternative process models decisively outperformed within-attribute ones, in accounting for choices and response-times. These findings elucidate the psychological processes underlying preference formation when making risky-choices, and suggest that compensatory, within-alternative integration is an adaptive mechanism employed in human decision-making.
机译:决策中的关键问题是人们如何整合数量和概率以形成风险替代方案之间的偏好。在这里,我们依靠边界集成的一般原理来开发几种风险选择的生物学上可行的过程模型,这些模型同时考虑了选择和响应时间。这些模型使我们能够对两种有影响力的竞争理论进行对比:i)基于数量和概率之间的乘法交互作用的内部评估,ii)跨替代方案的属性内比较。为了约束偏好形成过程,我们在成对的简单彩票之间进行决策时监视注视,这些注视旨在系统地跨越决策空间。行为结果表明,参与者的眼动扫描模式与风险偏好和期望值最大化相关。至关重要的是,模型比较表明,考虑到选择和响应时间,内部替代过程模型在性能上要优于内部模型。这些发现阐明了做出风险选择时偏好形成的心理过程,并暗示补偿性,替代性整合是人类决策中采用的一种适应性机制。

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