Modelling travellers' risky choice in a revealed preference context: A comparison of EUT and non-EUT approaches

摘要

Recent work on risky choice modelling has sought to address the shortcomings of expected utilitytheory (EUT) by using non-expected utility (non-EUT) approaches. However, to date theseapproaches have been merely tested on stated choice data. In this study, we investigate empirically thefeasibility and validity of non-EUT approaches in a revealed choice context, and subsequently presentsystematic comparisons between EUT, weighted utility theory (WUT), rank-dependent expectedutility theory (RDT), and prospect theory (PT). The empirical evidence indicates that each non-EUTmodel has important behavioural insights to offer, however the EUT and non-EUT model fits aregenerally similar with only PT providing a marginally improved model fit over EUT. The findingspresented in this study reinforce the importance of exploring non-EUT models within a revealedpreference context before they can be applied reliably to modelling risky choices in the real world.