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Comparing Bayesian and non-Bayesian accounts of human confidence reports

机译:比较人类信心报告的贝叶斯和非贝叶斯说明

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摘要

Humans can meaningfully report their confidence in a perceptual or cognitive decision. It is widely believed that these reports reflect the Bayesian probability that the decision is correct, but this hypothesis has not been rigorously tested against non-Bayesian alternatives. We use two perceptual categorization tasks in which Bayesian confidence reporting requires subjects to take sensory uncertainty into account in a specific way. We find that subjects do take sensory uncertainty into account when reporting confidence, suggesting that brain areas involved in reporting confidence can access low-level representations of sensory uncertainty, a prerequisite of Bayesian inference. However, behavior is not fully consistent with the Bayesian hypothesis and is better described by simple heuristic models that use uncertainty in a non-Bayesian way. Both conclusions are robust to changes in the uncertainty manipulation, task, response modality, model comparison metric, and additional flexibility in the Bayesian model. Our results suggest that adhering to a rational account of confidence behavior may require incorporating implementational constraints.
机译:人类可以有意义地报告他们对感知或认知决策的信心。人们普遍认为,这些报告反映了该决策正确的贝叶斯概率,但是该假设尚未针对非贝叶斯替代方案进行严格检验。我们使用两个感知分类任务,其中贝叶斯置信度报告要求受试者以特定方式将感官不确定性考虑在内。我们发现受试者在报告置信度时确实将感觉不确定性考虑在内,这表明参与报告置信度的大脑区域可以访问感觉不确定性的低级表示,这是贝叶斯推理的前提。但是,行为与贝叶斯假设并不完全一致,并且可以通过简单的启发式模型(以非贝叶斯方式使用不确定性)更好地描述行为。这两个结论对于不确定性操纵,任务,响应方式,模型比较度量以及贝叶斯模型的附加灵活性的变化都具有鲁棒性。我们的结果表明,要坚持对置信行为的合理解释,可能需要纳入实施约束。

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