Spatiotemporal Changes in Fine Particulate Matter Pollution and the Associated Mortality Burden in China between 2015 and 2016

摘要

In recent years, research on the spatiotemporal distribution and health effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been conducted in China. However, the limitations of different research scopes and methods have led to low comparability between regions regarding the mortality burden of PM2.5. A kriging model was used to simulate the distribution of PM2.5 in 2015 and 2016. Relative risk (RR) at a specified PM2.5 exposure concentration was estimated with an integrated exposure–response (IER) model for different causes of mortality: lung cancer (LC), ischaemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (stroke) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The population attributable fraction (PAF) was adopted to estimate deaths attributed to PM2.5. 72.02% of cities experienced decreases in PM2.5 from 2015 to 2016. Due to the overall decrease in the PM2.5 concentration, the total number of deaths decreased by approximately 10,658 per million in 336 cities, including a decrease of 1400, 1836, 6312 and 1110 caused by LC, IHD, stroke and COPD, respectively. Our results suggest that the overall PM2.5 concentration and PM2.5-related deaths exhibited decreasing trends in China, although air quality in local areas has deteriorated. To improve air pollution control strategies, regional PM2.5 concentrations and trends should be fully considered.