计及稳定度分量的负荷预测新评价标准

摘要

So far, accuracy is basically taken as the only work of load forecast. However, the accuracy just reflects the absolute deviation of load forecast, which differentiates load stability due to different load struc-tures in different regions. The load stability degrees in all regions basically decide the load accuracy, which can not reflect effort of load forecast personnel. The stability degree component is introduced as a new concep-tion in load forecast evaluation standard that takes stability component into account. The new system checks monthly qualification rate of load forecast through stability degree component and evaluates load forecast by qualification rate and accuracy.%到目前为止，负荷预测工作基本上以负荷预测准确率为评价标准。而负荷准确率只反映了负荷预测的绝对偏差的大小，由于各地区负荷构成因素不同，导致负荷稳定性迥异。各地区负荷稳定性高低基本决定了地区负荷准确率高低，不利于反映负荷预测人员真实努力的程度。记及稳定度分量的负荷预测新评价标准引入了稳定度分量的概念，通过该地每个月稳定度分量的高低来核算每月负荷预测合格率，通过合格率与准确率双重指标对负荷预测工作进行评价。