兰村泉域岩溶地下水位动态变化趋势分析

摘要

By using R/S analysis method which based on fractal theory,this paper studied on the dynamic of karst groundwater level from the per-spective of nonlinear in Lancun spring area. Based on the annual average water level data of S1 aperture Lancun from 1954 to 2011 and according to the phased characteristics of spring dynamic condition,it divided the water level of time series into three sections. Each Hurst value of the sec-tions was calculated and every dynamic change trend was analyzed with the circulation condition of karst water level. The results show that under the condition of Lancun karst water exploitation amount little changed in the future,the water level decline will gradually slow down.%应用基于分形理论的R／S分析法，从非线性的角度研究太原市兰村泉域岩溶地下水水位的动态变化趋势。以兰村S1观测孔1954—2011年的年均水位资料为基础，针对泉域地下水位变化的阶段性特征，将水位时间序列分为3段，分别计算各段的Hurst值，并结合泉域岩溶地下水的循环条件分析水位动态变化趋势。结果表明，在未来兰村泉域岩溶水开采量变化不大的情况下，其水位下降趋势将逐渐变缓。