近50 a来窟野河流域水文情势变化研究

摘要

对窟野河流域1966—2012年降水量、径流量以及降水—径流量关系的变化趋势进行了分析，通过建立SIMHYD模型，研究了气候变化和人类活动对窟野河流域径流的影响程度。结果表明：近50 a来流域径流量呈显著减少趋势；降水量虽然没有明显变化，但是1999年以后降雨强度减小；1998年后流域产流条件发生了很大变化；近几十年来，人类活动是窟野河流域径流量减少的主要因素。%It analyzed the trend of precipitation,runoff and rainfall-runoff relationship of Kuye River basin from 1966 to 2012. By establishing SIMHYD model,it studied on the impact of climate changes and human activities to the Kuye River basin. The results show that the runoff signifi-cantly decreases during the past 50 years. Precipitation has no significant change,but rainfall intensity reduces after 1999. Runoff conditions change a lot after 1998. In recent decades,human activities are major factors in runoff reducing of Kuye River Basin.