依据窟野河入黄控制站——温家川水文站1955-2013年实测径流和降水数据,通过线性趋势、累积距平曲线、R/S等分析方法,分析了窟野河年、汛期、非汛期径流变化特性.同时,采用M-K秩相关检验、双累积曲线法分析了降水及人类活动对年、汛期、非汛期径流变化的影响.结果表明:①年、汛期、非汛期径流量总体上均表现出减少趋势,且未来一段时间3个时段径流量均有持续减少的态势;②年、汛期和非汛期径流量的阶段性变化特征为1955-1978年处于明显上升阶段,1979-1995年在微弱的波动中下降,1996-2013年呈现显著的下降趋势;③1979-1995年,降水对年、汛期径流量减少的影响值分别为0.868亿m3和0.810亿m3,是影响径流量减少的主要原因之一;1996-2013年,人类活动成为影响年、汛期径流量减少的主导因素,影响值分别高达4.622亿m3和3.198亿m3.对于非汛期,1979年以来,人类活动一直是影响径流量减少的主导因素且呈增加趋势.%Based on the actual measurement of precipitation and runoff data in Wenjiachuan hydrological station during the year of 1955-2013,the variation of annual,flood season and non-flood season runoff were studied by Linear trend,cumulative anomaly curve,R/S analysis.Meanwhile,the effects of precipitation and human activities on annual,flood season and none-flood season runoff variation were analyzed by M-K correlation test and double mass curve method.The results showed that:(1) the runoff of annual,flood season and non-flood season in Kuyeriver had a decreasing tendency,and this decreasing trends would continue during certain period of time in the future.(2) The stage change characteristics of annual,flood season and non-flood season runoff rise significantly in 1955-1978,decrease with the weak fluctuation in 1979-1995,and displays the significant downward trend in 1996-2013.(3) In 1979-1995,precipitation was one of the main factors to influence the runoff variation of annual and flood season,and the influence values reached to 0.868 × 108m3 and 0.810 × 108m3 respectively.In 1996-2013,human activities became the main force to affect the annual and flood season runoff decrease,and the influence values had come to 4.622 × 108 m3 and 3.198 × 108 m3 respectively.For the non-flood season,human activities have been the dominant factor to affect the runoff change since 1979and its influence are on the increase.
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