黄河源区近60 a气候变化特征及暖湿化分析

摘要

In order to reveal the characteristics and trend of climate change,the general characteristics of climate change in recent 60 years were an-alyzed with linear trend analysis,Mann-Kendall break detector and Morlet wavelet transform method based on the annual average temperature and precipitation data from 1953 to 2012 in Maduo area. The results show that the annual average temperature obviously increases with the rate of 0. 289℃/10-year,and an abrupt change from low temperature to high temperature occurs in 1997. Meanwhile,there is also increasing trend with the rate 10. 21 mm/10-year of the annual average precipitation,and the abrupt change in precipitation occurs in 2003. Morlet wavelet analysis reveals that the annual mean temperature fluctuates significantly with the interval of 15-year,6-year and 29-year,and the annual mean precipitation fluctuates with the interval of 27-year,12-year and 5-year,respectively.%为揭示黄河源区气候变化特征与趋势，利用1953—2012年玛多地区年平均气温和年降水量，采用线性趋势分析、Mann－Kendall突变检验和Morlet小波变换等方法，对玛多地区的气候变化特征进行了分析。结果表明：玛多地区年平均气温呈显著升高趋势，倾向率为0．289℃／10 a，1997年发生了由低温向高温的突变；年降水量呈增加趋势，倾向率为10．21 mm／10 a，降水量由少到多的突变发生在2003年；玛多地区年平均气温的第一主周期为15 a，此外还有6 a、29 a的变换周期；年降水量的第一主周期为27 a，此外还有12 a、5 a的变换周期。