灌区运行管理状况及发展趋势评价对改进灌区管理、提高节水改造资金使用效率具有重要的作用。构建了灌区运行管理状况及其影响的动态评价模型，该模型可对灌区财务状况、工程状况及其对灌区灌溉面积、粮食产量和农民种植收入的影响进行动态模拟。将该模型运用于吉林省永舒榆灌区的运行管理模拟中，经验证，该模型能对灌区的运行管理状况及影响较好地进行动态模拟。结果表明：永舒榆灌区目前的运行状况良好，模型预测2010-2020年灌区的灌溉面积、粮食产量和农民种植收入都将有大幅提高。%The evaluation of management level and trend of irrigation area are of important for improving the management of irrigation area and for enhancing the use efficiency of water saving transformation project fund. This paper had established a system dynamics model on management of irri-gation area. This model could dynamically simulate the financial and engineering situation of irrigation area and their impacts on the area,grain yield and planting income of famers. The model was used to simulate the management situation of Yongsuyu irrigation area in Jilin Province. It was proved that this model could dynamically simulate the management situation of irrigation area and its impact well. The result shows that Yongsuyu irrigation area is managed well at present. It is estimated that the irrigation area,grain yield and planting income of famers of this irrigation area will be greatly increased during the period of 2010-2020.
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