区域经济发展水平与用水效率的空间计量分析

摘要

For the purpose of improving water⁃use efficiency, this paper took the economic development level and geographic factors into consideration to reveal the spatial correlation between the level of regional economic development and water⁃use efficiency. Based on the data of per capita GDP of each region and ten thousand RMB Yuan water consumption of Jiangsu Province in 2012, it built spatial econometric models and compared the analysis results of these three models:ordinary regression model, spatial lag model ( SLM) and spatial error model ( SEM) . The results show that there is a significant spatial correlation between the level of regional economic development and water⁃use efficiency of Jiangsu Province;Moran's I passes the test of significance and R2 is always greater than 0.75, and the spatial lag model ( SLM) fits best;water⁃use efficiency in Jiangsu Province is influenced by the level of local economic development and the water⁃use efficiency in the surrounding urban areas.%以提高水资源利用效率为目的，综合考虑经济发展水平和区位因素，揭示区域经济发展水平与用水效率之间的空间关联性，以2012年江苏省各地区人均GDP和万元产值用水量为依据，建立空间计量经济模型，并比较了普通回归模型、空间滞后模型（ SLM）、空间误差模型（ SEM）的分析结果。研究表明：江苏省区域经济发展水平与用水效率之间存在显著的空间关联性，Moran’ s I通过了显著性检验且R2始终大于0．75，其中空间滞后模型（ SLM）拟合效果最好；江苏省各地区的用水效率除了受当地经济发展水平的影响，还受周边城市用水效率的影响。