嘉陵江西汉水流域降水径流关系变化分析

摘要

In order to quantitatively sutdy the runoff variation of upper Jialing River region, based on the annual precipitation and runoff data of Xihanshui Basin from 1969 to 2011, the trend of rainfall, runoff and the rainfall-runoff relationship is statisti-cally analyzed by liner regression, Mann-Kendall method and Spearman rank correlation method. The results revealed that the annual precipitation of Xihanshui Basin showed a slight decrease trend, but the runoff declined by 49% in average during re-search period;the rainfall-runoff relationship changed significantly after 1993 due to the influence of soil and water conservation measures and water consumption increase.%为了定量研究嘉陵江上游区域的径流变化趋势，选用西汉水流域1969~2011年的降水径流资料，采用线性回归分析、Mann-Kendall统计检验法及Spearman秩次相关检验法，对该流域降雨、径流趋势以及降雨径流关系变化趋势进行分析。结果表明：1969~2011年间，该流域降水有弱减小趋势，径流减少趋势较明显，平均减少达49%。降雨径流关系在1993年后发生明显改变，减少趋势显著，主要是流域内各种水土保持措施综合作用和用水消耗增加所致。