长江上游与洞庭湖洪水遭遇天气概念模型研究

摘要

Once the flood in upper Yangtze River encounters the flood in Dangting Lake Basin, the basin flood or the cata-strophic flood would form, which could bring huge pressure and challenge for the flood control and disaster reduction of every re-gion in the basin. We analyzed 30 flood encountering processes from 1981 to 2012 and established 5 weather conceptual models. Through describing the synoptic system characteristics, precipitation characteristics and flood characteristics of the 5 models, the meteorological laws of the flood encountering was researched in detail, which provided a good technical support for optimizing the regulation scheme of Three Gorges Project.%长江上游与洞庭湖洪水一旦遭遇，将会形成全流域性洪水或特大洪水，给流域各地区防洪减灾工作带来巨大考验。对1981~2012年间共30次长江上游与洞庭湖洪水遭遇过程进行了分析，建立了5类天气学概念模型。通过分别描述这5类模型的洪水特征、降水特征及天气系统演变特征，对洪水遭遇的天气学规律进行了更细致的研究，为进一步优化三峡水库调度方案提供了技术支撑。