基于BTOPMC的无资料区水文模拟及相似性分析

摘要

针对稀缺资料地区分布式水文模型无法直接应用的问题，以无径流观测资料的西充河流域(西充境内)为研究区、以相近的李子溪流域为参证流域，建立了BTOPMC模型进行流域水文相似性分析，并采用参数移植法模拟研究区径流过程。结果表明：参证流域径流模拟结果良好，经参数转移之后的BTOPMC模型具有一定的适用性。该方法解决了水文模型在参数移植构成中的不确定性问题，可为其他无观测资料流域的模拟提供借鉴。%The distributed hydrological model can not be applied to the ungauged basins directly. According to this defects and based on the BTOPMC model and analysis of the hydrological similarity principles, the runoff of a typical ungauged basin ( Xi-chong River basin within Xichong County) is simulated with parameters transplantation method, by taking Li Zixi Basin as a ref-erence basin. The simulation results of the reference basin are satisfactory and the simulation results of the study area are reasona-ble. So the proposed model with parameters transplantation is adaptable to the study area, which can effectively solve the problem of uncertainty in the process of model parameters transplantation and provides reference for the runoff simulation of other ungauged basins.