基于数值预报模式的柘溪水库流域径流预报系统

摘要

水库的优化调度运行需要依赖预报准确率高、预见期长的径流预报结果.现有的柘溪水库流域径流预报系统由于未考虑水库流域未来时段的降水过程,径流预报的预见期和准确率无法满足汛期优化调度的要求.为此,在分析柘溪水库流域的水文和气候特征基础上,提出了数值预报模式和水文模型的耦合预报框架,设计了基于数值预报模式的柘溪水库流域径流预报系统架构,阐述了系统的主要功能与逻辑结构.通过系统的应用,可为提高汛期洪水的利用率、减少弃水、提高发电和防洪效益提供重要决策支撑.%Optimal operation of reservoir relies on high accuracy and long lead-time runoff forecasting results.As the basin precipitation process in the future is not considered into the current runoff forecasting system of Zhexi Reservoir,the forecast lead time and accuracy cannot meet its requirements of optimal operation in the flood season.Therefore,according to the hydrological and meteorological characteristics of Zhexi Reservoir Basin,the coupling forecast framework of numerical forecast model and hydrological model are proposed,the runoff forecasting system based on numerical forecast model is designed,and several main functional modules and logical structures are described in detail.Its implementation and application can provide important information for optimal operation of Zhexi Reservoir.