[ Objective]This paper analyzed the driving force factors of cultivated land quantity change by exploring the quantity and quality changes of cultivated land from 1995 to 2009 in Altay City so as to provide the basis for rational utilization and respective management of cultivated land resource. [Method] The research conducted an explorative study of the factors which influenced the change of the cultivated land with the gray correlation degree analysis method. [Result]The quantity of cultivated land in Altay City has shown a trend of fluctuation in the past 15 years, and the influential factors of its change are mainly economic and social factors. [Conclusion]Comprehensive analyses carried out show the social and economic factors that influence the quantity changes of cultivated land, industrial and agricultural construction investment, agricultural output and the urbanization level are the main driving force factors.%[目的]通过对1995～2009年阿勒泰市耕地数量和质量变化的探究,分析耕地数量变化的驱动力因子,为合理利用、因地制宜管理耕地资源提供依据.[方法]用灰色关联度分析方法对影响耕地数量变化的因素进行了探索性研究.[结果]阿勒泰市近15年耕地数量呈波动变化态势,影响耕地数量变化的因素主要是经济和社会因素.[结论]综合分析影响耕地数量变化的社会、经济因素,工业建设投资、农业建设投资、农业总产值以及城市化水平是影响耕地数量变化的主要驱动力.
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