基于事件数据的雅鲁藏布江-布拉马普特拉河国际河流安全分析

摘要

雅鲁藏布江-布拉马普特拉河是我国重要的国际河流，近年的水电开发活动，使其日益成为国内外国际河流研究关注的热点。本文基于国际关系研究中常用的事件分析方法，在构建事件数据库的基础上，从事件类型、涉及国别、事件频率、影响程度四方面进行分析，结果表明：水资源分配问题是雅江流域主要问题；中国在雅江国际河流问题上与下游国家的联系主要以与印度或孟加拉国的双边联系为主；随着时间的推移，雅江冲突与合作事件的频率都表现出增加的趋势；雅江围绕国际河流的国际关系局势大致可分为4个阶段：60年代的平稳阶段、70年代的紧张阶段、80年代的沉寂阶段、90年代后的持续关注阶段。%The Yarlung zangbo - Brahmaputra River is a famous international river, Hydropower development activities in recent years have made it increas ingly become the focus in the international river research field. This article used event analysis method in the study of international relations, based on building event database, analyzed security of the Yarlung zangbo - Brahmapu-tra River from aspects of the type of event, related countries, event frequen-cy, and impact levels. The results show that, the issue of water resources al-location is the primary problem; Chinese international river prob lems may mostly related to India or Bangladesh; As the time passed, the frequency of events of the Yarlung zangbo - Brahmaputra River showed an increasing trend;the international relation’s situation about the Yarlung zangbo - Brahmaputra River can be broadly divided into four stages: stable stage in the 1960s, ner-vous stage in the 1970s, silence stage in the 1980s and sustained attention stage in the 1990s.