中东地缘政治环境对伊朗崛起的影响浅析

摘要

Located in the hinterland of power interests’intersection and col-lision in the Middle East, theMideastern geopolitical environment has a direct and profound influence in Iran’s rise. Under the powers’circled, the coexis-tence of“dual-core”,“one power”and“a union”is a typical pattern of this region's geopolitical environment. It is an unfavorable influence factor to use“offshore balancer”to block Iran’s rise by powers. And the mutual depen-dence, competitive and complementary between the Mideastern countries would create some good conditions for Iran’s rise.Although Iran has become the major winner in the Mideast upheavals, but its road of rise is still beset with dif-ficulties. And on the basis of fully grasping the opportunity, it needs to ef-fectively deal with difficulties and challenges to achieve national rise.%伊朗地处大国利益交汇和碰撞的中东腹地，中东地区的地缘政治环境对伊朗崛起有着直接而深刻的影响。在大国环伺下，“双核一强”与“一盟”并存是这一地区地缘政治环境的典型格局。大国运用“离岸平衡手”阻挠伊朗崛起，这是伊朗崛起较为不利的影响因素；而中东国家内部之间的相互依赖、竞争与互补则将为伊朗崛起创造良好的条件。尽管伊朗已成为中东变局的重要赢家，但崛起道路依然困难重重，所以伊朗要善于利用中东地缘政治结构中的利好因素，方能实现国家崛起之愿望。