城市轨道交通线网规划的客流预测模型及应用

摘要

文章根据轨道交通线网规划客流预测的目标、要点、年限和内容,建立了包含出行生成预测、出行分布预测、交通方式分担预测和交通分配预测的四阶段法预测模型,并利用该模型对兰州市轨道交通线网规划的四种方案进行了客流预测,得出最优方案。%According to the goal,key point,age limit and content of traffic line network pas-senger flow forecast,the article builds a four-stage forecast model that contains trip gener-ation forecast,trip distribution forecast,transportation sharing forecast,and traffic distribu-tion.We use this model to predict the traffic volume on the four methods contained in Lanzhou line network plan and reach the optimum one.