基于国民收入决定模型的经济增长驱动因素的实证分析--以江苏为例

摘要

In the current economic situation that the external demand is seriously deficient and the internal demand is in the trend of slowing down, it is particularly important to study the driving force of the economic growth. Taking Jiangsu province as an example, according to the observation value from 1985 to 2011, the paper firstly describes the driving force of the economic growth using the method of statistical description. And then, the paper sets up VAR model, and uses impulse response function and variance decomposi-tion method to make an empirical analysis on the driving factors of the economic growth in Jiangsu province. At last, the paper puts forward policy suggestions to promote the economic growth of Jiangsu province according to the analysis conclusion.%在当前国际经济形势外需严重不足，内需趋缓的情况下，经济增长的驱动力研究显得尤为重要。本文以江苏为例，根据1985-2011年的观测值，首先运用统计描述的方法对经济增长的驱动力进行了描述性分析，在此基础上建立VAR模型，运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法对江苏省经济增长的驱动因素进行了实证分析，最后根据分析的结论提出促进江苏省经济增长的政策建议。