基于动态因子模型的我国物价波动影响因素的实证分析

摘要

Using factor analysis method, the paper picks up 5 public factors from 16 macroeconomic indicators related to the price, and then establishes VAR model to analyze the impact and influence of various factors on price factors through the impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis. The results show that in the short term, the active world trade has inhibitory effect on China’s price level. The rapid growth of the economy, the improvement of residents’ consumption level and the increase of money supply can lead to a rising prices. In the long run, the price increase is a monetary effect. In addition, for China, monetary factor con-tributes most to the price fluctuation, and others are price itself, macroeconomic factors, international factors, demand factors. Finally, according to the current economic situation, the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions from four aspects such as creat-ing a stable financial environment, accelerating the economic restructuring and industrial upgrading, enhancing the capacity of resi-dents' consumption to expand consumption demand and comprehensively deepening the price reform of resources products and so on.%本文运用因子分析方法从16个与物价相关的宏观经济指标中提取出5个公共因子，然后建立VAR模型，通过脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解分析了各个因子对物价因子的冲击和影响。结果表明：短期内，活跃的世界贸易对我国物价水平有抑制作用；经济的快速增长、居民消费水平的提高以及货币供应量的增加均可引起物价上涨；从长期来看，物价上涨是货币效应。另外，对于我国的物价波动贡献率最大的是货币因素，其余依次为物价因素本身、宏观经济因素、国际因素、需求因素。最后，根据当前经济形势，从营造稳定的金融环境、加快经济结构调整和产业升级、增强居民消费能力扩大消费需求、全面深化资源产品价格改革等四个方面提出对策建议。