基于模糊层次分析法的水库移民收入风险分析

摘要

Based on risk theory and combining with the income sources of reservoir resettlement,the risk factors which influence the income of reservoir resettlement are firstly identified based on Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS).And then,the comprehensive risk evaluation model which combines qualitative and quantitative analysis tools is established by using fuzzy AHP to analyze the of risk resettlement income.Based on the results of risk analyses,the possible ways to avoid resettlement income risk and restore and improve the income are also discussed.%以风险理论为基础,结合我国水库移民现有的收入来源途经,基于风险分解结构(RBS)对影响水库移民收入的风险因素进行风险辨识.在此基础上,采取模糊层次分析法,定性与定量相结合,构建风险综合评价模型,对水库移民收入进行风险分析,并针对风险分析的结果探讨了规避移民收入风险与实现收入恢复并提高的可能途径.