以洮儿河流域上中游区为例,以其控制性站点察尔森水库和洮南水文站的1961年～2010年降水量和径流量实测数据为研究依据,采用Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法及双累积曲线法,分析研究区径流量的变化趋势,确定突变年,应用F检验法并通过对比突变年前后的径流变化,量化降水和人类活动对研究区径流变化的影响程度.结果表明,研究区降水量呈不显著下降趋势,径流量呈下降趋势;研究区径流量在1998年发生明显突变;1998年以前,研究区径流量的变化主要受降水的影响,1998年以后,降水对研究区径流量变化作用减小,人类活动对径流量的影响逐渐增加,径流变化受降水和人类活动的双重影响.%Taking the upper and middle reaches of Tao'er River Basin as an example,the Mann-Kendall test and the double mass curve method are used to study the trends and change points of annual runoff in study area based on the data series of annual runoff and annual precipitation from 1961 to 2010 in Chaersen Reservoir and Taonan Hydrologic Station.The influences of precipitation and human activities on runoff are quantified by using F test and comparing the runoff series around change points.Major findings are as follows:(a) during 1961-2010,the precipitation in study region is not significantly decreased,while the runoff is decreased;(b) the runoff is significantly changed in 1998;and (c) before 1998,the precipitation is the main factor affecting the runoff,but after 1998,the effect of precipitation on runoff is decreased,while the effect of human activities is gradually increased,so the runoff changes are affected by precipitation and human activities at the same time.
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