多站联动水位流量关系拟合方法研究

摘要

传统水位流量关系采用参数固定的映射函数拟合历史数据中水位、流量转换关系,未考虑实时变化,不能准确描述水位流量关系;为此提出基于洪水波传播及相应水位法的多站联动水位流量关系拟合法(MISC),以淮河小柳巷站点作为试验站,将试验站及其上游站点的实时流量、水位资料应用于预见期为3 ～24 h的实时洪水预报.研究表明,实时资料加入后,MISC法能够迅速、准确的计算出预报时刻水位流量关系,并能在较长预见期内保持较高的水位模拟精度,可以作为可靠的实时洪水预报下边界.研究成果已在淮河流域推广应用.%In traditional,the mapping function is used to fix conversion relationship between water level and flow.Because the method does not consider the changes in real time,it cannot accurately describe the relationship between water level and flow.Based on the level of flood wave propagation and corresponding method,the multi-station interactive stage-discharge rating curve (MISC) is proposed.Taking Xiaoliuxiang Station in Huaihe River as study case,the real-time flow and water lever data of Station and its upstream sites are used to nake real-time flood forecasting in following 3 h to 24 h.The study resuhs show that the MISC method can quickly and accurately calculate the relationship of water level and flow at forecast moment,and can maintain higher simulation accuracy for a long-term forecast.The forecast results can be used as the lower boundary of reliable real-time flood forecasting.The research results have been widely used in Huaihe River Basin,and can be used in other basins with higher fitting accuracy of water level and flow relationship.