革命老区工业化、城乡差距与金融发展相关关系实证分析--以达州市为例

摘要

At the first, the paper uses unit root test to analyze the stability of three variables of industrialization, urban-rural gap and financial development. Based on the results of stability, VAR model is built. On the basic of VAR model, the empirical analysis of correlation and dynamic effect for financial development, industrialization and urban-rural gap is carried out by the impulse response inspection, co-integration analysis and causality test. The results show that, the financial development weakens industrialization, it only can inhibit the expanding of urban-rural gap for a short term, and the inhibitory effect cannot last long. So, it has important significance to increase financial support and improve the efficiency of financial credit for promoting the industrialization path optimization and inhibit the increasing of urban-rural gap in old revolutionary base areas.%文章首先利用单位根检验分析了工业化、城乡差距和金融发展三个变量的平稳性。基于平稳性的结果建立了VAR模型。并在VAR模型的基础上，用脉冲响应检验、协整检验和Granger因果检验，对金融发展、工业化和城乡差距的相关关系和动态影响进行实证分析。结果发现，达州市的金融发展对工业化的促进作用表现为弱化趋势，仅在短期内能抑制城乡差距的扩大，在远期内这种抑制作用不能超长持久，因此，在革命老区，加大金融支持力度，提高金融信贷效率，对推动工业化的路径优化，抑制城乡差距扩大意义重大。