产业结构变动与经济增长关系实证分析——以四川省达州市为例

摘要

通过对达州市1993—2009年的国内生产总值和三次产业产值的数据建立VAR模型，利用JJ协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数分析等，对达州市产业结构与经济增长的关系进行分析，并利用方差分解分析，实证出三次产业对经济增长的贡献度．根据实证分析结果，结合达州市经济发展特点，最后提出优化第一产业、大力发展二三产业、利用各产业间的连动作用加强产业问的协调发展等对策建议．%The relationship between industrial structure and economic growth in Dazhou city is empirically analyzed through the VAR model on the basis of GDP from 1993 to 2009 and the data of three output values, the co - integration test of JJ, granger causality test and impulse response function and the economical achievements from three changes of industrial structures is empirically proved through variance decomposition. According to the empirical results and economic development features in Dazhou, the countermeasures are put forward ： optimization of first industry, vigorous development of secondary and tertiary industries and coordinated development between them because of their pro - cyclical functions.