基于系统动力学的PPP项目失败风险因素动态反馈分析

摘要

Based on the perspective of the PPP project failure, this paper expounds the theory of PPP project failure and PPP project failure risk factors, and summarizes main risk factors leading to the failure of PPP project from 6 aspects. By means of system dynamics method to analyze the relationships between the factors, according to government departments, the private sector and third parties, this paper builds and analyzes three subsystems, identifies feedback loops to further clarify the relationship between factors. Analysis shows that the allocation of risk is a key risk factor of PPP project failures, in the most central position. On this basis, it analyzes risk characteristics of dynamic feedback system, clears the dynamic relationship between the risk factors of PPP project failure in each system, to provide theoretical support for reducing PPP project failure rates and developing effective risk control strategy.%以PPP项目失败的实践背景为视角，阐述PPP项目失败理论，梳理PPP项目失败风险因素，从6个方面归纳导致PPP项目失败的主要风险因素。借助系统动力学分析方法对各因素之间的关系进行分析，分别针对政府部门、私营部门和第三方建立三个子系统并进行分析，找出反馈回路，进一步明确因素之间的关系。分析表明风险分配是PPP项目失败的关键风险因素，处于最核心的位置。在此基础上，深入分析其风险动态反馈系统特征，明确各系统内PPP项目失败风险因素之间的动态关系，为降低PPP项目的失败率和制定有效的风险控制策略提供理论支撑。