城市轨道交通网络新线接入后的客流预测

摘要

城市轨道交通网络新线接入后，网络拓扑结构和客流时空规律都将发生较大变化。提出通过可达性指标将进出站量预测、OD分布量预测、基于路径选择模型的随机客流分配等阶段关联，构建客流预测模型。进出站量预测时，构建土地利用替代指标，避免对新车站周边土地利用、社会经济属性等进行调查；同时由目的地选择效用计算得到车站可达性指标，描述车站位置对进出站量的影响。OD分布量预测时，构建目的地选择模型，可适应拓扑变化后的场景，模型中OD可达性指标由路径选择效用计算得到。构建的路径选择模型，综合考虑了影响乘客路径选择的各因素。最后，对广州市地铁6号线接入后的客流进行建模预测，各模型参数均符合统计检验要求且客流预测精度较高。%The urban rail transit network topology and the spatial/temporal characteristics of passenger flow change significantly with the new rail transit lines in operation. This paper develops a passenger vol-ume forecasting model using accessibility index in connecting entrance/egress passenger forecasting, OD distribution, and assignment based on route choice model. To forecast passenger entrance/egress volumes, the paper replaces land use with an alternative index to circumvent the investigation on land use and socio-demographics surrounding new stations. The station accessibility index is used based on destination choice utility to show the impacts of station location on entrance/egress passenger volumes. To forecast OD distri-bution, the study develops destination choice model that is tailored to different network topology. The OD accessibility index is calculated using route choice utility. The route choice model is developed with the consideration of various factors in passengers' route choice. Finally, the paper illustrates the passenger vol-ume forecasting for the Guangzhou rail transit network with the new Metro Line 6. The results show that the estimated model parameters meet the statistical requirements and the forecasting results are highly ac-curate.