基于灰色系统与逐步回归及二者组合的大坝变形分析模型研究

摘要

This paper introduces the grey system model GM（ 1,1 ）, stepwise regression pnnclpte and me opnmal welgnnng combined model. Meanwhile,according to the monitoring data of a darn,this paper uses MATLAB language programming and SPSS Statistics to establish GM（ 1,1 ） model ,regression model and the optimal weighting combined model to simulation forecast the original monitoring data and through comparing and analyzing the data to show that the optimal weighting combined model has the highest synthesis precision. It has certain significance for the dam deformation analysis research.%介绍了灰色系统模型GM（1,1）、逐步回归原理与最优加权组合模型,并针对某大坝的监测数据利用MATLAB语言编程和SPSS Statistics建立GM（1,1）模型、逐步回归模型与最优加权组合模型,对原始监测数据进行模拟预测,通过实验数据对比分析,最优加权组合模型的综合精度较高,对大坝变形分析研究有一定意义。