参数累积估计PGM（1,1）模型在变形预测中的应用

摘要

Viewing from the defects that the traditional GM（1,1）prediction model,the paper put forward that using accumulation parameter estimation method instead of least squares method,and analyzes that the feasibility of parametric estimation method to solve the grey model parameters,and establishing accumulation parameter estimation of PGM（1,1）model.Experiments showed that the established model a certain rationality and superiority,and can be used in the deformation monitoring.%针对传统GM（1,1）模型在变形预测应用中的缺陷,本文采用参数累积估计方法来代替最小二乘法,分析累积法用于求解灰色模型参数的可行性,并建立参数累积估计PGM（1,1）变形预测模型。通过具体实例,结果表明建立的模型具有一定的合理性和优越性,可以应用于实际的变形监测中。