该文运用线性规划模型,以农业面源污染削减、粮食及副食品供应安全和农业经济发展为多重目标,设置了流域6大分区农、牧、渔共72个变量,进行了太湖流域农业结构的优化设计.研究结果得到了流域及其6大分区不同农田利用方式、畜禽和淡水养殖结构的优化方案,可以在保证流域粮食及副食品安全和目前产值水平的前提下,达到农业面源污染35.1%的削减率.根据优化设计结果,提出了保持水田面积、旱地栽培大幅压缩,蔬菜生产设施化、园地生产保持稳定、猪与家禽养殖明显压缩、淡水养殖"压中有保"的太湖流域农业结构调整方向,并对不同分区的调整重点进行了分析.%A linear programming model was applied to optimize agricultural structure in Taihu lake Basin, not only agricultural economy development, but also agricultural non-point source pollution(ANPSP) and grain and food supply security were taken into consideration. In this model, 72 variables of 6 partitions were set. In this study, optimal scheme of agricultural structure in Taihu lake Basin and its partitions were concluded, which assured an ANPSP reduction rate of 35.1% on the premise of food security guarantee and agricultural output value unchanged. According to the study result, it is suggested that large area of dry land cultivation should be changed into protected cultivation and paddy field and a large amount of pig and poultry breeding should be reduced, while 2/3 or more of freshwater culture should be kept. According to the study results, it is suggested that large area of dry land cultivation should be changed into protected cultivation and paddy field and a large amount of pig and poultry breeding should be reduced, while 2/3 or more of freshwater culture should be kept. At last, different adjusting advices to different partitions are put forward.
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