The prediction of land use structure is the focal issue of land utilization and management. Land use structure prediction based on biodiversity conservation is vital for the areas with good bio-environment and rich species. In this study, CA-Markov was applied for modelling the biodiversity-conservation based land use structure prediction of Ledong County and related results in 2020 are obtained. The results revealed that the predicted land distribution is more reasonable than that of 2009, the layout of construction land was more agglomerative, and most of the construction land in the north areas which had the richest biodiversities has been transformed into forest, bio-resources in coastal zone have been protected while the tourism construction is developing. CA units of cultivated land were increased and the increased areas were distributed in the general biodiversity zone of the west. The simulation highlights the biodiversity protection, which is practically essential for sustainable land utilization in Ledong county.%土地利用结构预测是土地利用与管理的核心问题,基于生物多样性保护的土地利用结构预测对生态环境良好、物种丰富的地区尤其重要.该文应用元胞自动机-马尔科夫模型(CA-Markov)模型建立了基于生物多样性保护的乐东县土地利用结构预测模型,获得了2020年土地利用结构.结果表明:2020年土地利用结构预测结果较2009年更合理,其中建设用地布局更加集中,北部生物多样性极为丰富区内建设用地大部分转变为林地,滨海地区在发展旅游建设的同时海岸带生态资源得到保护;耕地元胞单元增加,且增加部分主要分布在西部生物多样性丰富度一般区.预测结果突出了对生物多样性的保护,对乐东县土地可持续利用具有重要的现实意义.
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