Planning for Sea Level Rise and Land Use Change: Adaptive Conservation Planning and Reserve Design to Conserve Biodiversity in the Matanzas River Basin, Northeast Florida

摘要

Coupled with human population growth and increasing urbanization, sea level rise (SLR) is likely to be one of the most important challenges for biodiversity conservation in Florida. In response to SLR and future land use change, designing functional reserve networks is essential to facilitate biodiversity adaptation to SLR. The aim of this dissertation is to develop and assess an integrated SLR adaptive conservation planning model that incorporates economic concepts in the planning process with different model-dataset combinations in the Matanzas River Basin of Northeast Florida.;Three issues are discussed in three chapters. In chapter 2, I develop an integrated modeling process using a geomorphological model (SLAMM), species habitat models, and conservation prioritization (Zonation) to identify conservation priorities in response to SLR. I compare the SLR adaptive conservation priorities with existing Florida conservation layers including current reserves, the Florida Ecological Greenways Network (FEGN) and the Critical Lands and Waters Identification Project (CLIP). Results show that current reserves are not adequate to protect some of the most important conservation priorities as SLR occurs but that the updated FEGN and CLIP do serve as a good foundation for future conservation decisions.;Chapter 3 explores how economic concepts can be integrated into SLR adaptive conservation planning. The economic side of conservation analysis in this research demonstrates that conservation priorities with consideration of costs could be significantly different from conservation prioritization without consideration of costs. Understanding the economic side of conservation planning will help reserve and other coastal resource managers make informed decisions about where/how to allocate resources more wisely to facilitate biodiversity adaptation to SLR.;Chapter 4 investigates the value of information (data accuracy & model sophistication) in SLR adaptive conservation planning. The results suggest that the combination of process-based coastal impact modeling and high-resolution elevation data could considerably improve the identification of potential species habitat and conservation priorities that are adaptive to SLR. The less accurate model and elevation dataset when used in SLR adaptive conservation designs could fail to identify areas that have high conservation value.;Chapter 5 includes recommendations for land protection and growth management to facilitate biodiversity adaptation to SLR.