剖析中国农业机械化高速发展时期农业机械对劳动力的替代情况,研究要素替代的阶段性特征及延续性,是一个兼具理论意义和政策参考价值的课题.该文利用超越对数成本函数测算了2004-2016年小麦、玉米和水稻3大粮食作物生产中机械对劳动的替代弹性,重点关注了作物和地区差异及其时空变化特征.结果表明:1)中国农业机械化出现了"黄金十年"发展期,主要原因是实现了机械对劳动力广泛、有效和持续替代,小麦、玉米和水稻生产中的替代弹性分别达到0.581、1.324和1.153.2)随着机械化水平提高,机械对劳动的替代弹性趋于下降,粮食作物机械化水平进一步提升的难度加大.3)替代弹性存在地区差异,南方低缓丘陵区和西南丘陵山区普遍高于其他区域,机械化水平提升空间较大,有望保持快速增长.4)替代弹性的时空收敛性变化特征解释了当前农机化进程放缓的现象,也意味着继续推进农业机械化面临着一定的困难和挑战.如果未来中国农业机械化要延续"黄金十年"的增长趋势,需要打破现有发展格局,重点从提升丘陵山区机械化水平,推进全面、全程机械化等方面着手.%Since 2004, with the rapid rise of labor prices, the application of agricultural machinery in China's agricultural production has increased and the process of agricultural mechanization has been rapidly advancing in the "golden decade". It is a research subject with both theoretical significance and policy reference value to explore the substitution of labor by agricultural machinery during this period, and to study the phased characteristics and continuity of factor substitution. Based on the provincial panel data from 2004 to 2016, this paper uses the translog cost function to calculate the substitution elasticity between machinery and labor in the production of 3 major grain crops i.e. wheat, maize and rice, focusing on the difference between crops and between regions,and their spatial and temporal variations.The data used in this paper come from National Agricultural Product Cost And Income Data Compilation,and China Statistical Yearbook(2002-2017).The results showed that: 1) The development of China's agricultural mechanization experiences a "golden decade", mainly due to the widespread, effective, and sustained replacement of labor by agricultural machinery, the substitution elasticity between agricultural machinery and labor for wheat, maize and rice was 0.581、1.324 and 1.153, respectively, and the mechanization of maize and rice at key production link is remarkable. 2) The substitution elasticity of wheat was stable at around 0.6 during 2004-2016, while the substitution elasticity of maize and rice showed a long-term downward trend, which decreased from 1.545 and 1.224 to 1.225 and 1.152 respectively. It means that when agricultural mechanization reached a higher level, the difficulty of factor substitution gradually increased and the substitution elasticity tended to decline, and it is much more difficult to increase the mechanization level of grain crops in the future. 3) Affected by factors such as the topography of operations, the development of agricultural mechanization in various provinces is at different stages, and there is a clear difference of the substitution elasticity between agricultural machinery and labor in grain production. The substitution elasticity of the southern low-lying hilly region, and the hilly and mountainous area in the southwest is generally higher than that in other regions, and there is a large space to increase the agricultural mechanization level in these regions, which might keep a remarkable increase. 4) With the general increase of mechanization level, the substitution elasticity shows the characteristics of temporal and spatial convergence, and the regional differences are gradually reduced and the whole tends to be stable. This can be used to explain the slowdown of the speed of China's agricultural mechanization, and it also means that relying solely on the mechanization of food crops to stimulate the overall level of agriculture mechanization has become a thing of the past. In the future, the rapid growth of agricultural mechanization in China is faced with unprecedented difficulties and challenges, and it needs 5 aspects of measures to deal with this situation, such as enhancing the mechanization level of hilly and mountainous areas, promoting the mechanization toward whole and entire development, promoting the using of new multi-machinery and information-based smart machinery through machinery purchase subsidy policy, and reducing operational links and labor force participation directly.
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