低碳经济下基于排放轨迹约束的电力系统电源扩展规划模型

摘要

Developing a low-carbon electricity system is a key measure to meet the challenge of global warming and socioeconomic sustainable development.Decarbonization of power generation will be a critical option for CO2 emission mitigation.In this paper,after describing the factors of low-carbon economy and their effects on generation planning,a model for generation expansion planning based on the carbon emission trajectory model is proposed under low-carbon economy.The new model integrates and formulates some low-carbon factors such as the cost of low-carbon power technology,carbon trading cost and the penalties for excess carbon emission based on the carbon emission trajectory model and considers the constraint of the CO2 reduction targets.An actual case is studies based on one provincial grid in China by applying the proposed model and the results prove it to be more adaptable and effective for the sustainable development of future power system.%电力行业低碳化是应对全球气候变暖、实现我国社会经济可持续发展的关键,而电源规划将在其中发挥至关重要的作用。本文深入揭示了低碳经济相关要素及其对电源规划的影响,并结合基于总额度约束的CO2排放轨迹,建立了低碳经济下基于排放轨迹约束的电力系统电源扩展规划模型。该模型在传统模型的基础上将低碳电力技术成本、碳交易费用以及碳排放超过排放轨迹额度的惩罚费用加入目标函数,将CO2减排目标引入约束条件,从而更全面地反映低碳经济以及国家不同减排模式下的电源规划费用。利用该模型对某省级电网的电源扩展规划进行了研究,结果验证了所提出模型的正确性和有效性。