基于风光联合概率分布的微电网概率潮流预测

摘要

风力发电和光伏发电是微电网的重要发电单元。考虑到风速和光照对微电网潮流的影响具有一定的相关性，对微电网潮流的联合概率分布进行预测，可以减轻风速和光照的随机性对微电网运行的不利影响，为微电网的能量管理奠定基础。在风力发电和光伏发电功率预测的基础上，先对微电网潮流进行确定性预测，再将马尔科夫链和拉丁超立方抽样相结合，分别对微电网潮流的条件联合概率分布和非条件联合概率分布进行预测。仿真结果表明，条件联合概率分布计算方法得到的置信区间更具有参考价值。所得结论为进一步分析和优化系统运行提供了理论依据。%Wind and photovoltaic generations are important units of a microgrid. Considering that the effects of wind and irradiance on the microgrid are of certain correlation, forecasting the joint probability distribution of power flow can reduce the impact of varied wind speed and irradiance on the operation of the microgrid and provides the theory base for the energy management in a microgrid. The deterministic power flow is forecasted firstly based on the forecasting of wind and photovoltaic generations, and then Markov chain and Latin hypercube sampling are combined to forecast the conditional and unconditional joint probability distribution of power flow in the microgrid. The results show that the confidence interval calculated by the former is more valuable, which provides a theoretical basis for further analyzing and optimizing system operation.