老龄化时代的到来,老年旅游成为未来旅游市场的重要组成部分,但目前对老年旅游市场较为细致的研究仍显单薄.文章基于积极心理学的主要理论,采用中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)2011年和2013年数据,对老年人的身体状况因素及心理状况因素对其出游参与的影响进行估计,从而识别出影响老年人家庭出游的主要限制性因素.研究结果表明:身体状况会限制以家庭为单位的老年人的出游参与,但仅仅是在以走路能力、爬楼梯能力等为代表的基本日常活动能力出现困难时,老年人出游参与的概率会降低;大多数慢性病对老年人出游参与的影响不显著,但血脂异常变量对城市老年人的出游参与产生了显著影响,而对农村居民的影响并不显著.与身体状况相比,心理状况的稳定影响着老年人的出游参与概率,且无城乡差异,表现出无论是个体还是家庭,心态越积极乐观,对未来越充满期待,出游参与的概率则越大的特征.%Elderly tourism has become an important part of the tourism market. However, there is little current research on the elderly tourism market. Based on the main theories of positive psychology, my study used data from CHARLS2011 and 2013 to estimate the physical and psychological factors that affect the elderly who attempt travel, as well as to identify the main limiting factors affecting outbound elderly family travel. The conclusions are as follows: (1) Physical conditions that restrict the participation of the elderly in tourism include physical abilities as the main limiting factor. There are differences in the effects of different abilities and differences between urban and rural areas. Walking ability is the main restricting factor. The abilities to climb stairs, bend the knees, and squat show differences between urban and rural areas. The participation of the elderly is not affected by most chronic diseases, except for dyslipidemia, which has a positive effect on the decisions of the elderly to undertake travel. (2) Psychological status also has an impact on the elderly' s participation in tourism. Based on positive psychology and social socioemotional selectivity theory, this article selects two types of variables that represent psychological conditions. One variable is a stable emotional state while the other is life expectancy, which represents the degree of optimism. Both variables significantly affect the likelihood of older people's participation in family travel. The variables exhibit no differences between urban and rural areas. (3) A robustness test has proven the restrictive factors of participation in tourism obtained from the main effect estimation to be robust. The psychological variables have a stable influence on the elderly's participation in travel and the influence of basic physical abilities is also relatively stable. (4) The results show that the better the mental state of the whole family, the higher is the probability of participation in family travel. The mental state indicates how hopeful a family is about its future and how likely it is to participate in tourism. However, the more family members differ on their expectations about the future, the lower is the probability of their traveling together. The number of family members with chronic diseases does not directly limit participation in family travel, but if chronic diseases have a change from scratch or from little to many, the likelihood of participation in family travel would be lower. A family's collective physical ability also affects the likelihood the family will engage in travel. The poorer the collective physical ability, the less likely the family would engage in travel. Psychological factors have a stable influence on the likelihood of the elderly to travel. There is no difference in the factors between urban and rural areas. Attitudes that are more positive, optimistic, and hopeful about the future indicate a greater likelihood of travel.
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