廊坊市短时强降水特征及其临近预报指标研究

摘要

利用MICAPS资料、自动站资料、雷达资料和NCEP 1°×1°间隔6 h再分析资料,对2005—2013年河北省廊坊市短时强降水的天气特征和物理环境场进行了综合分析,在研究强降水天气过程雷达特征的基础上,探讨了廊坊短时强降水天气的临近预报指标.结果表明:平均降水强度最大的区域集中在廊坊中西部固安、永清和霸州等地,强度达32~36 mm·h-1,整体呈现从中部向南北减小趋势,年际分布呈波动形式;短时强降水的雷达回波有移入型、合并加强型和本地发展型三种,而区域性短时强降水多为移入型或合并加强型;强降水开始前1 h,垂直方向上1.5—3.0 km之间有南风向西南风的转换,同时伴随风速增大.%Using MICAPS automatic station data, radar data and NCEP 6 hourly reanalysis data with 1° × 1° resolution, the short-time strong rainfall weather characteristics and the physical environment are analyzed in Langfang region from 2005 to 2013. On the basis of the analysis of Doppler radar products, we discussed the approach warning index of the short-time strong rainfall weather forecast. The results show that short-time strong rainfall areas are concentrated in Langfang midwest including Guan,Yongqing and Bazhou, etc. The intensity re-duces from the center to north and south. The characteristics of interannual distribution is an oscillating pattern. The short-time strong precip-itation echo could be divided into three types, i.e., moving type, merger strengthen type and local development type. Regional heavy rain was caused by moving or merger strengthen types. One hour prior to the start of heavy rain, wind transformed from south to southwest, accompa-nied by the increasing of wind speed between 1.5 and 3.0 km.