不同积云和微物理方案对'麦德姆'台风登陆后路径的影响

摘要

基于中尺度数值预报模式WRF V3.5,利用7种积云方案和13种云微物理方案构成的不同组合设计了91组试验,对2014年第10号台风"麦德姆"登陆后影响江西期间的路径进行了模拟和分析.结果发现,台风路径对积云和微物理方案的选择较为敏感,在91组模拟试验中,模拟路径与实况路径的偏差从29.7~76.9 km不等,平均偏差为54.5 km;Grell-Freitas积云方案与WDM5和WDM6微物理方案的组合(N38和N39)模拟的台风路径最为接近实况路径(偏差约30 km),而BMJ积云方案与Kessler、SUB-YLin和Milbrandt微物理方案的组合(N14、N22和N24)的模拟较差,模拟路径与实况路径偏差超过75 km,且明显较实况偏东;对于某一积云(微物理)方案,13种微物理(7种积云)方案的表现也有较大差异,总体上Grell-Freitas和Grell-3方案在7种积云方案中表现最好,而WDM5和WDM6则在13种云微物理方案中表现最好;N38和N39试验成功模拟了台风路径的主要原因是较好地模拟出西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称西太副高)的位置,而N14、N22和N24试验模拟的台风路径偏东则主要是由模拟的西太副高位置偏东造成.%The track of typhoon Matmo(No.201410)after its landfall and affecting Jiangxi is simulated by WRF V3.5 with different combi-nations of 7 cumulus parameterization and 13 microphysics schemes(total 91 numerical experiments).The results show that the track is sensi-tive to the selection of cumulus parameterizations and microphysics schemes.In all 91 experiments,the distance between simulated and ob-served track ranges from 29.7 to 76.9 km,with a mean deviation of 54.5 km;The tracks simulated by the combinations of Grell-Freitas and WDM5(N38)or WDM6(N39)are the most close to observation(deviation about 30km).The combinations of BMJ and SBU-YLin(N14),BMJ and Milbrandt(N22),and BMJ and SBU-YLin(N24)did not result in good accuracy to simulate the track,which deviates eastward over 75 km from observation.For a given cumulus(microphysics)scheme,the skills of the 13 microphysics(7 cumulus)schemes are largely different. Generally,Grell-Freitas and Grell-3 perform the best in the 7 cumulus parameterizations,while WDM5 and WDM6 perform the best in the 13 microphysics schemes.The main reason for the good performance of N38 and N39 is that they accurately simulate the location and evolu-tion of the Western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).Contrarily,the poor performance of N14,N22 and N24 mainly result from the simulation of the WPSH which deviates eastward from observation.