新供给经济下的地方政府性债务效率研究基于DEA三阶段和空间外溢效应模型

摘要

通过DEA三阶段方法对中国31个行政区域进行地方政府性债务效率的测度,测评结果表明,2001~2013年,中国地方政府性债务使用效率整体稳中有升,趋势向好,环境变量对效率值存在显著影响；运用空间杜宾模型测度地方政府性债务效率的时空变迁,结果发现经济、社会、政策、市场化程度及债务管理因素均存在显著的空间外溢效应；同时基于空间框架下分析上述各因素对地方政府性债务效率的影响机制。最后,结合当前经济形势和文章实证结论,提出了包括组织债务置换、重置债务结构、创新债务激励管控预警机制协调债务空间利用与供给侧改革等优化地方政府性债务效率的改革路径。%Taking 3 1 provinces of China for samples,this paper makes an evaluation of the use efficiency of local government debts with the three-stage DEA model.The results reveal that the overall efficiency of local government debts in China is increasing with a positive trend as a whole,and there is a significant influence of environment variables during the period of 2001-2013.Then,the paper uses the special dubin model to measure the timing and special change of the efficiency of local government debts.The findings show that the indicators including econo-my,society,policy,and the debt management factors have a significant spatial spillover effect on the efficiency of local government debts.In this paper,we analyze the mechanism of the factors that affect the efficiency of local government debts.Finally,combining with the current economic situation and empirical conclusions,this paper puts forward serious solutions to the optimization the local government debt efficiency including displacement the local debt,reseting the debt structure,innovating incentive control and warning mechanism,ruled by the reform of the supply side.