以大连市普湾新区作为研究区，利用2000，2007，2014年3个时期的遥感影像数据，对研究区14年间的土地利用动态变化过程以及各土地利用类型间的相互转化情况进行分析，获得研究区各年份间土地利用变化的转移矩阵和土地利用类型变换图。然后运用IDRISI的CA-Markov模型对研究区未来土地利用演变趋势进行模拟及预测，得到研究区2021年土地利用类型预测图及统计数据。结果表明：2000-2014年的14年期间研究区的建设用地明显增加，耕地和水体不断减少，林地后期出现减少趋势，未利用土地呈现波动变化的趋势。而且到2021年建设用地和耕地、水体之间的矛盾将更加突出，应合理利用土地资源、保护生态环境，减少对海洋生态的危害。%Puwan New Area dalian city as the research area, based on the remote sensing image data of 2000、2007、2014 three periods, Through the analysis of land use dynamic change process of 14 years in the study area as well as the mutual transformation between various land use type, obtain the transfer matrices of land use change and land use type transformation maps. Then use CA - Markov model of IDRISI to simulate and predict the evolu-tion trend of land use of study area in the future, get the land use type prediction map and statistical data of study area in 2021. Re-sults show that during the period of 14 years, build-up land in-creased significantly, crop land and water shrinking, forest late de-cline trend, unused land fluctuated change trend in the study area. And by 2021, the contradiction between the build-up land and crop land、water will be more outstanding. we should reason-ably use land resources, protect the ecological environment, reduce the harm to Marine ecosystems.
展开▼
