灰色理论在预测 SF6组合电器漏气情况中的应用

摘要

The application of GIS equipment in substation is more and more popular,but gas leakage plays an impor-tant role in safe operation of GIS equipment.When it happens,the decrease of pressure in the air chamber shows a nonlin-ear tendency.Through fitting the tendency with gray theory,we can get the trend curve which is then tested by the residu-al error,the criticality and the posterior error.As a result,the decrease curve tested can be used to predict the next step of the gas leakage and give reference for formulating the maintenance schedule.As an example,the SF6 leakage in 500 kV GIS device of some ultra-high voltage substation is modeled on the basis of gray theory.After passing test,the model is then used to predict the tendency of gas leakage in the composite apparatus.%GIS 设备在变电站的应用越来越普遍，但漏气是影响 GIS 设备正常运行的一个非常重要的因素。GIS 设备漏气时，其气室压力值下降呈非线性趋势。通过灰色理论来拟合该下降趋势，得到拟合后的趋势曲线，该趋势曲线通过残差、关联度及后验差三种检验方式进行检验，若检验结果满足要求，则该拟合是有效的。因此，可通过拟合后的下降曲线，来预测漏气的 GIS 设备下一步的漏气情况，为检修计划的制定提供参考。文中以国内某特高压变电站500 kV GIS 组合电器气室 SF6气体泄漏为例，详细阐述了利用灰色理论建立模型，检验该模型，并进一步利用该模型来预测该组合电器将来 SF6气体泄漏的情况。