外资银行进入模式选择--考虑退出期权

摘要

利用实物期权方法，在考虑未来退出灵活性的情况下，分析了外资银行对进入中国市场模式的选择。研究结果表明：随着市场波动率和外资银行退出收益率的增加，外资银行选择少数股权进入模式时的退出价值大于选择独立发展进入模式时的退出期权价值，因此外资银行倾向于选择少数股权进入；随着外资银行经营效率的提高和中资银行本土化优势的减弱，外资银行倾向于选择独立发展模式进入。%Considering the quit flexibility in the future ,this paper analyzes foreign bank's choice on entry modes by using the real option meth‐od.The results shows as follows :with the increase of market volatility and exit return rate of foreign bank ,the exit option value of foreign bank when choosing minority equity is more than the that when choosing Greenfield ,so foreign banks prefer to cooperate with local banks by minority equity ;with the increase of operating efficiency of foreign bank and the decrease of local advantage of Chinese bank ,foreign banks prefer Green‐field.