中国不同时期短期国际资本流动影响因素比较

摘要

将2003-2012年细分为8个时间段，具体分析8个时间段内中国短期国际资本流动的情况及其影响因素。结果显示：正的国内外利差对短期国际资本流入的吸引力较小；2003-2012年期间的2个短期国际资本流入高峰是由人民币快速升值引致的；高股价收益率的持续时间较短，其对短期国际资本流入的总体影响较小；正的房价收益率能够引致稳定的短期国际资本净流入。%This paper subdivides the period of 2003‐2012 into 8 periods ,and analyzes the determinants of short‐term international capital flow in China in each period.Conclusions are as follows :positive interest rate differential could attract little short‐term international capital ;two peaks of short‐term international capital inflow during this period are mainly caused by the rapid appreciation of RBM ;the duration of high stock return is very short and its impact on international capital inflow is very little ;the positive return rate of housing price bring stable international capital inflow .