中国旅游投资增长周期波动性及其溢出效应

摘要

采用1999—2016年中国旅游投资的年度数据,利用H-P、B-P滤波法等,分析了中国旅游投资增长周期波动性的特征以及它对旅游经济增长周期波动性的溢出效应.结果表明:中国旅游投资增长呈显著的周期性,且其周期多为古典型周期,平均持续时间为3~4年,周期长度不仅趋短且波动性趋稳;从行业层面看,星级酒店投资增长周期为增长型周期和古典型周期的混合类,周期短且波动幅度较为稳定,星级酒店投资增长有一定的反周期能力;景区投资增长周期多为古典型周期,周期的波动幅度较大;旅行社投资增长周期全是古典型周期,初期增长的周期波动性较大,而后期增长的周期波动性则较平缓,逆周期能力有所增强;旅游投资增长对旅游经济增长周期波动性具有显著的稳定性效应,而旅游投资增长周期波动性则对之无显著的溢出效应;三大行业的投资增长周期波动性既对旅游经济增长无稳定效应,也对旅游经济增长周期波动性不具有显著的稳定效应;旅游投资增长风险与旅游经济增长风险之间存在一定的分离性.%Using the methods of the H-P and B-P,this paper analyzes the tourism investment growth period fluctuation and its overflow effect on tourism economic growth cycle fluctuation with the data from 1999 to 2016.The results show as follows:Chinese tourism investment growth overall shows a typical cyclical,the average duration sustains 3-4 years,which belongs to the typical short cycle,and the cycle becomes shorter and shorter,and the Chinese tourism investment growth has already walked up and down the stage,the tourism investment growth stability strengthens day by day;the investment growth cycle of star hotel is a mixture of growth type cycle and classic cycle,and the period is short,and the period fluctuation of star hotel is stable and its has certain counter-cyclical ability;the investment growth cycle of scenic spot is more typical of the classical period and the period fluctuation amplitude is larger;however,the investment growth cycle of travel agency is completely typical of the classic cycle;in the early development,the growth period is more volatile,while the later stage,it is relatively smooth;it has enhanced the counter-cyclical ability;the analysis of overflow effect shows that the growth of tourism investment has a significant stability effect on the fluctu-ation of tourism economic growth cycle,while the volatility of tourism investment growth cycle has no significant overflow effect;the investment growth volatility of the three tourism industries is not only a destabilizing effect on the growth of tourism economy,but also has no significant stabilizing effect on its growth cycle volatility;there is a certain separation between tourism investment growth risk and tourism economic growth risk.