首页> 中文期刊> 《台湾研究集刊》 >战术性“三不”政策:“双重战略困境”下的美国两岸政策

战术性“三不”政策:“双重战略困境”下的美国两岸政策

         

摘要

随着台湾岛内民进党再度上台执政,美国的对台政策随之出现了战术性调整。本文指出美国面临着“双重战略困境”,首先是在全球层面,美国面对乌克兰危机和中东危机,与中国大陆因台湾问题在东亚再起纷争殊非明智之举;其次是在中美关系层面,中国综合国力的迅速崛起,加之美国在许多议题领域亟需中国的战略合作,使得美国不希望因台湾问题而与中国发生冲突。在上述双重战略困境的制约下,美国在既有的“不统不独不武”的“战略性三不”政策基础上,开始推行“战术性三不”政策,即“不挑衅、不胁迫、不紧张”,其中“不挑衅”主要针对台湾当局,“不胁迫”主要针对大陆,而“不紧张”则着眼于总体台海局势,以防止两岸关系陷入紧张甚至爆发冲突,维持其在台海问题上的战略主动性。%The US Taiwan policy has made a tactical adjustment as DPP came in power again. This paper makes a detailed analysis of the “dual strategic dilemma” that the US is believed to be faced with. The first dilemma that confronts it can be found at the global level, that is, its unwise dispute with the mainland China in East Asia over the Taiwan issue when it gets in-volved in the inextricable Ukrainian Crisis and the crisis in the Middle East, whereas its second dilemma can be seen at the lev-el of China-US relations. The US feels reluctant to provoke a conflict with China because of the rise of China’s comprehensive power and the necessity of China-US cooperation in various fields. Constrained by the“dual strategic dilemma” and based on the strategic “Three No’s” policy ( no independence, no unification and no use of force) , the US has begun to pursue its tacti-cal “Three No’s” policy, that is,“no provocation” from the Taiwan administration,“no coercion” from the mainland China, and “no tension” between the two sides, in an attempt to maintain its strategic initiative in the cross-Strait relations.

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