首页> 中文期刊>农业系统科学与综合研究 >区域经济快速增长阶段生态环境可持续发展敏感性分析

区域经济快速增长阶段生态环境可持续发展敏感性分析

     

摘要

Aim to study the change of shaanxi ecological environmental sustainability in the peliond of rapid economic growth, so as to serve the local policy making. Methods abrupt climate change theory and Mann-Kendall method are applied to determine shaanxi economic rapid groth period;meanwile Based on"naturally occurring state;human pressures;environmental effects;and social responses"four environmental sustain-ability themes, this paper developed an indicator system including thirty-seven indicators forassessing the enviromnental sustainability of each year. four sub-indexes are aggregrated through WP method. Then, the annual composite environmental sustainability index was calculated by euclidean distance method. At the same time, indicators in each theme were analyzed by correlation and principal component analysis (PCA)in search of meaningful underlying variables which derive annual change .of each sub-index. Results the composite ecological environmental sus-tainability of shaanxi is steady in general, but decreased a little from 1989 to 1997;however, the composite ecological environmental sustainabili-ty is signifciantly increased from 1997 to 2006,which owes to emphasize social responses,decrease human pressures.Conclusion the regional e-conomical development exerts enormous pressuref upon the local ecological environment in the perion of rapid economic growth., but the sus-tainability of resources and environment can be accessable through emphasize social response and resources cyclic utilization.%目的.研究陕西省经济快速增长阶段生态环境可持续能力的总体变化态势,以求为制定政策服务.方法.借用气候突变原理,采用Mann-Kendall方法判定陕西省经济快速增长阶段;从生态环境生产潜力、人类活动影响、生态环境效应和社会响应4个主题出发,构建了包含37个指标的陕西省生态环境可持续发展评价指标体系.在主题层内部采用权重积(WP)方法构建了生态环境生产潜力指数等4个主题子指数,然后采用主成分分析方法和相关分析方法时影响各子指数变化的主导因素进行分析,最后采用欧式距离法计算研究区1989~2006年的综合环境生态指数并对其变化态势进行分析.结果.1989~1997年研究区综合可持续发展能力总体保持稳定,略有下降;1997~2006年综合可持续发展能力得到显著提高,特别是2000年西部大开发以来呈现出跨越式的进步,这主要归功于加大社会响应、减小人类活动影响,从而降低了生态环境效应、增强了生态环境生产潜力.结论.区域经济快速发展阶段经济发展对生态环境造成巨大压力,但通过加大社会响应、资源的循环利用,可以实现资源环境的可持续发展.图10,参22.

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