We examine the issue of what role the notion of subjective probabilities might play in game theory, from a decision-theoretic perspective. The main purpose is to shed some insight into the decision-theoretic account of game theory based on the idea of subjective probabilities. We illustrate by examples that there exists some problematic issues in the traditional approach to analyzing strategic interaction, which turn out to be closely related to the role of subjective probabilities in games. We then show that these troubles faced by the traditional game-theoretic framework can be evaded by developing a decision-theoretic approach to game theory using the idea of subjective probabilities. In particular, we will employ the notion of rationalizability as an example to demonstrate this viewpoint.%我们从决策理论的角度出发探讨了主观概率这一概念在博弈论中所扮演的角色.本文的主要目的在于进一步深入理解基于主观概率思想的博弈论的决策理论解释.我们通过具体实例展示了在分析策略互动的传统方法中存在着一些问题,而它们恰恰与主观概率在博弈中所起到的作用密切相关.在此基础上,我们论证到,利用主观概率的概念,并以决策理论为基础来构建博弈理论框架,可以有效避免传统博弈理论框架所面临的这些问题.特别地,我们将运用理性合理化的概念来为这一观点做出辩护.
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