中国高储蓄率的测度与动态影响机制研究

摘要

In this paper we firstly analyze the meaning and the degree of China's high saving rate ,we declare that the increasing trend is the main stylized fact of China's high saving rate ,and w hich is also the key point to understand China's high saving rate puzzle .We then construct and expand a "Buffer -Stock"model to analyze the mechanism of China's saving rate when there exists borrowing constraint and stochastic shocks ,and depict a financial accelerator in that mechanism ,which says agents will increase savings w hen facing stochastic shocks ,and by w hich they can obtain liquidity premium and the premium is positively relates to the degree of stochastic shocks , so this mechanism will accelerate saving rate fluctuation .Finally ,we use this model to simulate China's saving rate fluctuations during 1978-2013 ,and find that this model can not only simulate the trend but also the cyclical components of China's saving rate .%首先分析了中国储蓄率偏高的含义并对偏高的程度进行了测度，指出偏高程度不断上升是中国高储蓄率动态的主要特征事实。随后，建立一个扩展的缓冲存货模型，分析了存在信贷约束时，随机冲击对储蓄率的动态影响机制，指出该机制中存在着“金融加速器”效应，表现为居民在面临随机冲击时通过增加储蓄会获得流动性溢价，而且流动性溢价与随机冲击的程度成正比，因此该效应会放大储蓄率的波动。最后应用该模型对1978年至2013年中国储蓄率动态进行了数值模拟，发现该模型不仅能够解释中国储蓄率不断上升的长期趋势，也能够较好模拟其短期的周期性波动。