以汉江上游丹江口水库流域为研究区域，通过降雨-气象遥相关分析从74项大气环流因子中筛选出预报因子，建立月降雨量与预报因子间的多元线性回归模型，根据大气环流因子对月降雨量进行预报，并构建研究区域的SWAT 模型，以预报的月降雨量作为模型输入，实现月径流量的预报。以2012年逐月降雨及径流为例，模型对降雨和径流预报的合格率均约为83%，预报效果较好。研究表明，根据降雨量-大气环流因子的统计相关关系预报月降雨，并结合水文模型进行径流预报，对研究区域具有一定的适用性。%Inorder to predict monthly rainfall in Danjiangkou basin of the upper Han River, we selected predictors from 74 atmos-pheric circulation factors by analyzing correlation of rainfall and factors, and multiple linear regression model was established by which the monthly rainfall was predicted. SWAT model of the study area was built to forecast the monthly runoff by using monthly rainfall forecast values as the model input. The monthly rainfall and runoff of 2012 were forecasted with passing rate both were about 83 percent. It shows the method that monthly rainfall prediction based on the statistical correlation of rainfall and atmospheric circulation factors, and runoff prediction combined with hydrological model, is applicable to the studied area.
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